Summary and Forecast of China's Shipping Cost Trends (Updated in February 2025)
Welcome to the latest news from Presou Logistics, your ultimate resource for understanding global shipping trends and making data-driven decisions to optimize logistics. Whether you are an experienced importer or a novice in international shipping, this guide aims to simplify complex market fluctuations and provide actionable insights to give you a competitive advantage.
What's in this article?
- Route from China to Indonesia: Summarized the freight market in February and predicted the freight trend in March
- Route from China to Middle East region: Summarized the freight market in February and predicted the freight trend in March
- Route from China to North America: Summarized the freight market in February and predicted the freight trend in March
- Route from China to European region: Summarized the freight market in February and predicted the freight trend in March
- Route from China to Mexico: Summarized the freight market in February and predicted the freight trend in March
- Route from China to Australia: Summarized the freight market in February and predicted the freight trend in March
How to use this guide？
- Determine your region: Find a region that matches your trade route.
- Analyzing Trends: Reflecting on Changes in Shipping Rates.
- Utilize Insight: Apply freight forecasting to your transportation plan, carrier selection, and budget.
- Advance planning: Proactively communicate with freight forwarders to respond to market changes.
Let's delve into the maritime market landscape in February 2025 and discover opportunities for your business.
Route from China to Indonesia
Summary of February Shipping Costs
According to media reports, shipping companies are targeting the Southeast Asian dividend market and increasing their capacity investment in the fourth quarter of 2024. But just after the Spring Festival, factories of all sizes in China have not resumed shipments, resulting in an oversupply situation and directly affecting the shipping market. The sea freight cost of around USD 1200/40HC continued to decrease before the Spring Festival, and has remained at USD 1000/40HC until today.
March Shipping Cost Forecast
On March 1st this year, Indonesia's "Ramadan" began and is expected to end around March 30th. During this period, the effective daily working hours in Indonesia will be shortened by 3-4 hours, which will also reduce port/customs fees by about 40%.
The overall sea freight prices are expected to continue to decline in March, possibly falling below USD 900/40HC. But with the end of Ramadan, the Indonesian market urgently needs to "replenish inventory", and coupled with the short shipping time of air routes, there may be a peak in shipments in the fourth week of March, and sea freight prices are expected to experience a slight increase.
In addition, while the US tariff "big flag" focuses on the Chinese market, it will also target Southeast Asian countries where Chinese enterprises' production chains are located, which may also affect the shipping costs in the region.
Route from China to Middle East region
Summary of February Shipping Costs
The progress of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Gaza has come to a standstill, and many in the industry were originally optimistic about the possibility of resolving the Red Sea crisis this year, but now it seems to be a bit "far away".
The export demand in February has not shown a significant improvement, and the shipping market is still showing a downward trend after the Spring Festival. In addition, the external impact brought about by the restructuring services of the ocean shipping market and shipping company alliances resulted in a price drop from USD 1600/40HC to USD 1400/40HC.
March Shipping Cost Forecast
The Middle East, with over half of its Muslim population, will also enter Ramadan on March 1st this year, during which work efficiency in various industries will significantly decline.
Although Chinese factories have basically resumed production and shipment since March, it coincides with the "cooling off period" of Ramadan, and some shipping companies plan to reduce their liner shipments. The sea freight prices in March are expected to have a slight decline, and the overall stability is around USD 1200/40HC.
Shipping From China To Saudi Arabia
Route from China to North America
Summary of February Shipping Costs
'Tariffs' were the key words in the North American market in February. During the Spring Festival, the United States announced the imposition of a 10% tariff on China.
A few days later, due to execution issues, the United States announced on February 8th that it would temporarily restore the T86 customs clearance policy for tax-free orders below $800.
On February 10th, US President Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the United States, which will take effect on March 4th.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has directly announced that starting from February 10th, tariffs of 10% -15% will be imposed on 80 imported goods originating from the United States.
February is the off-season after the market holiday. Under the influence of the restructuring of shipping company alliances, the capacity of route services has been adjusted in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the number of empty flights has increased, and nearly 20% of market capacity has been affected. After the holiday, the US Western market fell to USD 2500 per 40HC container.
March Shipping Cost Forecast
At present, due to the impact of tariff policies and capacity adjustments, although there are still difficulties in demand growth, shipping companies intend to push up sea freight prices in response to the March market, and the US West Coast shipping market prices will fall back to USD 3000 starting point.
Route from China to European region
Summary of February Shipping Costs
The European market is also under "indiscriminate attack" from US tariffs. The EU plans to cancel the duty-free policy for imported goods under 150 euros (approximately 125 pounds) and will strictly control Chinese e-commerce platforms such as Temu and Shein.
In terms of port operations, French ports are facing serious disruptions due to the ongoing strikes of dock workers and port workers in February.
Since the beginning of this year, the off-season market has always lacked a turning point for boosting. The export volume of goods in the European shipping market has continued to decline, and sea freight prices have seriously shrunk. Despite the restructuring of shipping company alliances and the reduction of capacity on the Asia Europe route, prices have directly fallen to the level of USD 2250/40HC after the Spring Festival.
March Shipping Cost Forecast
At present, the cost of sea transportation has reached the price red line of shipping companies, and some shipping companies plan to raise freight rates in early March, with prices soaring above USD 4000/40HC. But demand is fundamental to ensuring market activity. Shipping companies have different pricing strategies to seize the market, and market prices are expected to experience varying degrees of correction in March.
Shipping from China to Denmark
Shipping from China to Romania
Route from China to Mexico
Summary of February Shipping Costs
Under pressure from the United States, Panama officially announced a "break up" after the year, formally withdrew from the "the Belt and Road" agreement and no longer renewed the memorandum of understanding. On the other hand, the United States has postponed its plan to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days. There are reports that the United States may impose tariffs on imported cars.
However, post holiday demand in the Latin American market continues to be sluggish. Despite the allocation of goods stockpiled during the Spring Festival in the first half of February, the Latin American shipping market is still facing a situation where capacity far exceeds export demand. As a result, some shipping companies have reduced their capacity to stabilize current ocean freight prices.
The overall sea freight price in February remained at a low price level of around USD 1800/40HC.
March Shipping Cost Forecast
In March, the market was affected by US trade tariffs and reduced shipping capacity, and sea freight prices are expected to increase by USD400-500/TEU, but there will still be a pullback after the increase.
Route from China to Australia
Summary of February Shipping Costs
The first and second quarters are the off-season for foreign trade in the Australian market. In the first half of February, major shipping companies were gradually dealing with the containers stockpiled during the Spring Festival period, coupled with the suspension of some liner services, resulting in a tight logistics capacity. However, due to a significant reduction in export demand to Australia and insufficient supply of goods, despite shipping companies adopting empty flight strategies to stimulate the market, shipping market prices continued to decline in February and are currently in the price range of USD 1300-1500/40HC.
March Shipping Cost Forecast
The first quarter is coming to an end, and if shipping companies fail to take effective measures such as reducing capacity in March to boost confidence in the shipping market, overall shipping prices are expected to continue to decline.
Summarize
In summary, the global shipping market in February 2025 presents a complex situation, with freight rates influenced by various factors including seasonal fluctuations, geopolitical situations, trade policies, and supply and demand relationships. The freight trends between China and major trading partners vary, and companies need to conduct in-depth analysis and forecasting based on their own situations.
Presou Logistics is committed to providing customers with the highest quality logistics services and hopes to use this report to help customers understand the latest trends in the shipping market, develop reasonable transportation plans, optimize supply chain management, reduce transportation costs, and enhance competitiveness.